Is the S&P 500 rally done yet? What’s next?

3 Apr 2020 recap — ES did rally to level 2525 and was rejected again. In smaller time frame ( M1 , M3 ), it did provide great short entry after the up thrust of the level. However, ES only managed to test 2450 and bounced up from there. The low volume without aggressive demand caused ES to drift down. Should ES still stuck below 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or even lower (i.e. the Selling climax’s low), under the background of lacking of demand.

Daily — After a sharp sell off, ES formed a selling climax ( SC ) low at 2174 followed by an automatic rally (AR). Now, it seems like the rally is coming to and end. The next move would be a secondary test ( ST ) to test the selling climax’s low. It could in a form of a higher low, similar low or even lower low. Oct 2008 global financial crisis could provide a good analog for reference. Could we see a down-sloping accumulation structure similar to 2008?

Weekly — a megaphone structure is formed. ES could potentially test the low as illustrated should a down-sloping structure in progress. This won’t surprise me given the COVID-19 situation is getting worse every day and the impact on the businesses.