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Gold futures — potential mean of reversion trade
9 Apr 2020 recap — Gold futures (GC) jumped up 4% on last Thursday fueled by the worst jobless claim numbers, with 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims. Meanwhile, the FED announced to inject $2.3 trillion to support the economy.
The volume was low on that breakout day suggested the the strong spike up was on the background of lacking of supply.
On a higher timeframe, 1750–1800 levels are resistance as seen in 2011–2013.
On H1 timeframe, the run up from the April’s low to 7 April high has climatic characteristics followed by a swing down, which can be considered as a change of character of the up swing from 1–7 Apr.
Current price action looks like an up thrust of the buying climax high at 1740, coincides with hitting the resistance (from 2011–2013). Movement between the trading range from 1670–1750 is expected for the Gold futures.
A breakdown of 1730 could be the first sign of weakness for the possible down swing.
